OCT 29 UPDATE! A Republican tsunami! My official election prediction for the House of Representatives.

This prediction has been replaced/updated with this one.

In my first analysis of the election, I forecast a Republican gain of 61 seats in the House.

In my second, I created three more sophisticated models and forecasted a GOP gain of 78 House seats. Each time a new Generic Congressional Poll was released, I updated my forecast in the comment section. I will do so again here.

The following is mostly the same text from Sunday’s post with updated polling data.

First, one must predict the vote totals for each party. Currently, RCP’s average of the “Generic Congressional Vote” shows Republicans winning 48.7% to 42.4%, a decline from Sunday’s 49.3%-41.6% margin. I then remove the polls with highest and lowest spread to eliminate outliers (in this case, I am removing one poll showing Republicans up by 14 and one that shows Democrats up by 3). Excluding those two gives us a much smaller range of +3 to +13, though this is much wider than Sunday’s range of +7 to +11, a small ver 4 point range. Removing the highest and lower outlier, Republicans lead Democrats 49.0% to 41.7%, a narrower spread than last week’s 49.8% to 40.6%. Eliminating the undecideds (if they have not decided by now, they are unlikely to vote) gives a two-party vote total of 54.0% for the Republicans (down from 55.1%) and 46.0% for the Democrats (up from 44.9%).

I now have three models to convert vote totals to House seats.

40-year model: Regression of House seats vs. vote total for every election since 1968.

8-year model: Regression of House seats vs. vote total for every election since 2002. Because of the increase in partisanship and computerized gerrymandering, there are now many more safe seats.

1994 & 2006 model: In these two mid-term elections, control of the House switched sides against an unpopular President. The same will likely occur this year.

The models produce the following results:

40-year model: Republicans win 257 House seats, gain of 79 seats.

8-year model: Republicans win 241 House seats, gain of 63 seats.

1994 & 2006 model: Republicans win 246 House seats, gain of 68 seats.

Taking a simple average of the three, I now predict the Republicans will win 248 House seats, a gain of 70 seats. On Sunday, I had predicted a gain of 78 seats. So the Generic Congressional Polls moved against the Republicans this week, but only barely.

However, the last poll of the week moved significantly in the GOP’s favor. Individual races, which had been moving against Republicans last week and earlier in this week, have also moved in the GOP’s favor toward the end of the week. I suspect that most of the movement we are seeing is statistical noise and not a change in voters’ opinions. So let’s take an average of my averages over the past week. Doing so, I now predict the GOP will gain 72 seats in the US House of Representatives.

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6 responses to “OCT 29 UPDATE! A Republican tsunami! My official election prediction for the House of Representatives.

  1. Pingback: A Republican tsunami? My official election prediction for the House of Representatives. « The Path to Tyranny Blog

  2. More polls coming out just about every day, but so far, little change in the results. The new results show that the GOP will pick up 73 House seats, up from 70. The average over the last week remains 72. Unless we get a move in one direction or the other, I am staying with my average of averages, which means I am still predicting a gain of 72 House seats for the Republicans.

  3. Pingback: The GOP can win 295 seats in the House, a 117-seat gain. « The Path to Tyranny Blog

  4. Another poll out. Rasmussen has the GOP winning the Generic Congressional Vote 55-42. Using this new data and my three models, the current forecast is at 73 and the average of my forecast of the last week remains at 72. Obviously, not much has change, though the Republicans have seen a small bounce in recent polls, and my forecast of a 72-seat gain looks solid.

    Three major caveats, of course.
    1: Are the polls correct? How do they predict turnout in a crazy election year like this one?
    2: How much cheating will be going on?
    3: How valid are the old models? In these days of computerized gerrymandering, are more seats safe? Or are fewer seats safe but those safe seats are much safer?

    Maybe on Wednesday we’ll start answering these questions.

  5. More polls out. Head over to RCP and you’ll clearly see in the chart that the Republicans have momentum going into the election.
    Link to RCP: http://goo.gl/crOa5

    As a result, my forecast is being revised higher. My models now predict a gain of 74 seats and my moving average has bumped up to 73.

    The last six polls gives the GOP a 10.3% margin of victory. Using those numbers (dropping the two oldest polls), the GOP would pick up 82 seats. But including just the last six would be biased because I’d be purposely favoring the Republicans.

    So, I am now predicting a gain of 74 seats (instead of 73 or 82) but caution that I could be predicting a large victory if more polls (are there any left?) confirm what we’ve been seeing.

  6. Pingback: NOV 2 Prediction. A Republican tsunami! My official election prediction for the House of Representatives. « The Path to Tyranny Blog

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