Did you know? The government would have to double income tax rates and not see any tax avoidance or evasion to close the deficit.
- 2011 Deficit: $1,299 billion
- 2011 Income tax revenue: $1,273 billion
Did you know? The government would have to double income tax rates and not see any tax avoidance or evasion to close the deficit.
Tagged big government, Deficit, income tax, taxes, United States
I’m rereading The Path to Tyranny to prepare it for a second printing and came across this section about Germany in the late 1920s and early 1930s (before the Nazis took over) very relevant for today:
The country’s economic problems worsened and the government approached bankruptcy. To reduce the budget deficit, the government raised unemployment insurance premiums, increased duties on wheat and barley, reduced pension and unemployment benefits, and cut the salaries of civil servants. The Social Democratic Party’s popularity declined even more when these measures pushed up unemployment even further and weakened the already fragile banking system. The government was trapped in a no-win situation. It cut back on spending to avoid bankruptcy, but this increased hardship on the people and reduced the government’s popularity. On the other hand, the government could have continued providing welfare to the people, but this would likely have forced Germany to default on its debt, which would have resulted in massive inflation and a flight of capital out of the country. The German government’s large deficits, which were the result of the economic depression combined with Germany’s already semi-socialist economy, forced Germany to decide between two equally bad choices. The resulting economic and political crisis was inevitable, regardless of what the government chose to do.
Are we in the same no-win situation today? If governments cut back on spending, this reverse-stimulus will hurt the economy and the removal of economic support will certainly increase the pain for many poor people. However, if the government continues with its deficit spending, bankruptcy will eventually occur, first in Greece which already has debt to GDP of 173%, but eventually in most if not all Western countries.
The EU and IMF had hoped that bailing out Ireland would end the sovereign debt crisis or at least forestall it for the time being. As I explained previously:
I don’t see how this changes anything. It may stave off immediate default, but Ireland is simply borrowing more money, exactly what got it into this mess in the first place. This simply buys them time to get their house in order, but will they?
I then compare the bailout to Dr. Evil:
These bailouts, loans, and austerity measures in Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland are “an easily escapable situation involving an overly elaborate and exotic death.” Instead of eliminating the deficit immediately, they have convoluted plans to reduce it over a five-year period. Will these plans work? Nobody knows. But that’s okay because “we’ll just assume it all went to plan.”
It only took a few days to prove that I am correct. Marketwatch reports:
European government bond markets were in turmoil Tuesday, as Portuguese and Spanish yields followed Irish yields sharply higher on growing doubts about the ability of politicians to contain the euro zone’s sovereign-debt crisis.
Rising bond yields underline fears that the debt crisis, which has already forced Greece and Ireland to seek bailouts, will spread to other high-deficit countries, potentially shutting them out of credit markets.
The yield premium demanded by investors to hold Portuguese 10-year bonds versus German bunds widened to 4.34 percentage points from around 4.08 percentage points Monday.
The spread between Spanish and German yields widened to 2.32 percentage points, exceeding the spread of 2.27 percentage points seen earlier this month.
How could the EU and IMF really be so stupid to believe their bailout would work. They thought their bailout of Greece and 750 billion Euro backstop would end the crisis once and for all. That failed, but they didn’t let that stop them from making the same mistake again.
It is often said that insanity is “doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” Supposedly, Einstein said as much.
This leaves us with three options:
Which do you think it is?
There are three stories out this morning regarding the sovereign debt crisis in Europe.
Ireland is likely to end up tapping a loan worth “tens of billions” of euros as a result of talks between the government and officials from the European Commission, European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, the head of Ireland’s central bank said Thursday.
The talks aren’t about a bailout, but will lead to a loan to Ireland that the government would have to accept, Central Bank of Ireland Governor Patrick Honohan said in an interview, according to Irish state broadcaster RTE.
The yield on the 10-year Irish government bond fell to around 8% this morning from 8.3% Wednesday, strategists said. European equity markets rallied, with the Irish ISEQ stock index gaining 1.4%.
I don’t see how this changes anything. It may stave off immediate default, but Ireland is simply borrowing more money, exactly what got it into this mess in the first place. This simply buys them time to get their house in order, but will they?
Now, over to Spain:
Spain sold 3.654 billion euros ($4.943 billion) in 10- and 30-year bonds, but was forced to pay higher yields than two months ago as worries about fiscal problems on the periphery of the euro zone push up borrowing costs. The Spanish Treasury offered 3 billion to 4 billion euros of 10- and 30-year bonds. The government paid an average yield of 4.615% on the 10-year bond, up from 4.144% at a September auction, Dow Jones Newswires reported. The 30-year bond auction produced an average yield of 5.488% versus 5.077% in September. The 10-year auction produced a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.84, versus 2.32 in September, the report said.
The market is relieved that Spain was able to sell its bonds. Again, great news that Spain was not forced to default, but it doesn’t change Spain’s fiscal situation. In fact, one can argue that by lending to Spain is simply enabling one is enabling their addiction.
And over to Greece:
The Greek government on Thursday submitted to parliament a budget plan that it said would allow to stick to its target of reducing its deficit to 7.4% of gross domestic product in 2011 despite a sharp upward revision to its 2009 and 2010 deficit levels. The European Union statistics agency Eurostat earlier this week upwardly revised Greece’s 2009 deficit by nearly two full percentage points to 15.4% of GDP. The government raised its estimate of the 2010 deficit to 9.4% of GDP. The finance ministry said it would further cut spending and boost revenues to meet the 2011 deficit target, taking measures that include a rise in the lower value-added tax rate to 13% from 11%, a levy on highly-profitable firms, cuts in government operating expenditures and a nominal pension freeze.
Greece was forced to take more austerity measures because the economy did worse than expected. I am not surprised by this because the austerity itself hurts the economy, like a medicine that tastes bad but is required to kill an infection. I expect more such bad news over the following years. Government forecasts of narrowing deficits in Europe’s at-risk countries and here too in the United State rely on solid economic growth over the next three to four years. Yet, this optimistic economic outlook will only reduce their deficits, or so they hope, to about 3 percent of GDP. Why aren’t they trying to eliminate their deficits entirely? Why are they relying on optimistic economic growth rates? Has government never heard of “expect the worst, hope for the best?” Instead, they hope for the best and trap themselves in a corner if that does not occur.
All this reminds me of a scene from Austin Powers. Doctor Evil finally captures his nemesis Austin Powers:
Dr. Evil: Scott, I want you to meet daddy’s nemesis, Austin Powers.
Scott Evil: What? Are you feeding him? Why don’t you just kill him?
Dr. Evil: I have an even better idea. I’m going to place him in an easily escapable situation involving an overly elaborate and exotic death.
Later in the scene:
Dr. Evil: Come, let’s return to dinner. Close the tank.
Scott Evil: Aren’t you going to watch them? They’ll get away!
Dr.Evil: No, we’ll leave them alone and not actually witness them dying, and we’ll just assume it all went to plan.
Scott Evil: I have a gun in my room. Give me five seconds, I’ll come back and blow their brains out.
Dr.Evil: No Scott. You just don’t get it, do you?
These bailouts, loans, and austerity measures in Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland are “an easily escapable situation involving an overly elaborate and exotic death.” Instead of eliminating the deficit immediately, they have convoluted plans to reduce it over a five-year period. Will these plans work? Nobody knows. But that’s okay because “we’ll just assume it all went to plan.”
Our governmental leaders may not be evil like Dr. Evil, but they certainly are as naive in assuming their plans will work. And they think we are too naive to notice their plans’ inadequacies.
Posted in big government, Deficits, Economics, Government spending, Sovereign debt crisis, Unintended consequences
Tagged 2010 European sovereign debt crisis, big government, Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland, Deficit, economics, European Central Bank, European Commission, European Union, Government, Government of Ireland, government spending, greece, Gross domestic product, Ireland, Patrick Honohan, portugal, spain, United States
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