Tag Archives: Gain

NOV 2 Prediction. A Republican tsunami! My official election prediction for the House of Representatives.

It’s election day and I am assuming there won’t be any more polls coming out. So now it is time to make my final election prediction for the House of Representatives. For those who have not been watching, this is not my first prediction.

Here is my prediction from October 22. GOP gain of 61 seats.

Here is my prediction from October 24. GOP gains 78 seats.

Here is my October 29 prediction. GOP gains 72 seats.

First a review of how I make my prediction.

I simply take the RCP average of Generic Congressional Vote as my baseline. I adjust their vote totals to assume the GOP and Dems receive 100% of the vote (ie. no third parties win any seats). Then, I have three models to convert vote totals to House seats.

40-year model: Regression of House seats vs. vote total for every election since 1968.

8-year model: Regression of House seats vs. vote total for every election since 2002. Because of the increase in partisanship and computerized gerrymandering, there are now many more safe seats.

1994 & 2006 model: In these two mid-term elections, control of the House switched sides against an unpopular President. The same will likely occur this year.

The models produce the following results:

40-year model: Republicans win 268 House seats, gain of 90 seats.

8-year model: Republicans win 247 House seats, gain of 69 seats.

1994 & 2006 model: Republicans win 253 House seats, gain of 75 seats.

Taking a simple average of the three, I now predict the Republicans will win 256 House seats, a gain of 78 seats.

The GOP can win 295 seats in the House, a 117-seat gain.

While I am currently predicting a gain of 72 House seats for the Republicans, the polls say that much larger gains are possible. RCP currently shows the GOP ahead by an eight-point margin. My own model shows a 7.7 percent margin. That converts into 242 to 259 House seats for the GOP, a gain of 64 to 81 seats.

However, in recent days Gallup showed the Republicans up by a 15-point margin, Fox News had them up by 13, and CNN/Opinion Research by 10 points. What if Gallup is correct and the Republicans win by a 55 to 40 margin?

According to my most generous model, my 40-year model (see details of the models here), the Republicans would end up with 295 House seats, a gain of 117 seats. My other models show the GOP finishing with 263 seats (+85 seats) or 273 seats (+95 seats) if Gallup is correct. The average of the three models, which I’ve been using for my middle-of-the-forecast, shows a GOP gain of 99 seats to 277 seats if Gallup is correct.