Tag Archives: GOP

Baseball analogy for tea party “victory”

To follow up on my post Has the Tea Party accomplished anything yet?

Over the last two years, the Democrats have scored a lot of runs. They hit a grand slam with health care reform. Another home run with stimulus spending. Another with financial reform. They racked up one run after another.

Finally, the tea party movement struck out the Democrats in spectacular fashion (the biggest electoral turnaround in 62 years) and the top half of the inning is over. Now, it is the tea party’s turn to try and score some runs. But the limited government side is trailing 37 to zero (government spending excluding defense is 37 percent of GDP).

The GOP now controls the House of Representative, but it does not yet have Senate or Presidency. So the tea party movement has a man on first base. But it’s in a deep hole, down by 37 runs, and has to start scoring runs in abundance.

I’m sure you can see why I am not too excited by the tea party “victory” of November 2. Yes, the tea party movement, which didn’t even exist two years ago, stopped the Democrats from scoring more runs, but to win you must score runs of your own. In this respect, the tea party has not accomplished anything.

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Congrats GOP. Now what do we do?

Congratulations to the GOP. They accomplished a historic election victory. The largest change in government since 1948.

However, I continue to fear for this country. Not because of the politicians, but because of the people. Of the 40-50% of those eligible to vote who actually voted, how many voted for liberty and limited government? The GOP won about 54% of the total vote, so maybe 54%. Maybe more, maybe less. But considering the majority of people didn’t even bother to vote, you are looking at a very small portion of the population who understands and cares enough to vote in favor of liberty and limited government. The number is 30% of the population, at best. Probably closer to 25% or even lower.

That is a very disappointing figure. While we must be involved in the political system, that will only help us on the margin. If 25% of the population supports limited government, nominating attractive candidates may boost that to 26% or 27%. Enough to temporarily defeat the political opponent, but not enough to fundamentally change our country.

The only long-term solution is education. We need to further the ideas of liberty, limited government, and checks and balances.We need to read, we need to write, and we need to share. With Amazon.com and social media, we have the tools to spread the knowledge. All it takes it effort.

So, now that the election is over, we have three main jobs:

  1. Make sure that government officials from both parties work toward smaller government.
  2. Begin recruiting for the next election.
  3. Educate ourselves and the public as to the benefits of limited government and checks and balances as described by our Constitution and elaborated upon in the Federalist Papers.

As you know, I’ll be focusing on the third item. I’ve already written one book warning the people of the evils of big government and the democratic demand for free gifts from the government. Many of you already know that I am working on a second book, the topic of which has not yet been announced. I have many more books planned, each of which advances the cause of liberty.

But while I will concentrate on the education portion, I will not be ignoring the first two parts. I will remain active in the political arena to ensure our governments (federal, state, and local) limit their size and scope and to help choose future candidates for political office.

We have a lot of work ahead of us. It has taken 100 years for our government to go from a very minor portion of our society to the huge behemoth it is today. It may take 100 years to reverse what has been done and we may not be alive to see our success. But succeed we must for the fate of our country and the world depend on us.

Eleftheria i thanatos!

The GOP can win 295 seats in the House, a 117-seat gain.

While I am currently predicting a gain of 72 House seats for the Republicans, the polls say that much larger gains are possible. RCP currently shows the GOP ahead by an eight-point margin. My own model shows a 7.7 percent margin. That converts into 242 to 259 House seats for the GOP, a gain of 64 to 81 seats.

However, in recent days Gallup showed the Republicans up by a 15-point margin, Fox News had them up by 13, and CNN/Opinion Research by 10 points. What if Gallup is correct and the Republicans win by a 55 to 40 margin?

According to my most generous model, my 40-year model (see details of the models here), the Republicans would end up with 295 House seats, a gain of 117 seats. My other models show the GOP finishing with 263 seats (+85 seats) or 273 seats (+95 seats) if Gallup is correct. The average of the three models, which I’ve been using for my middle-of-the-forecast, shows a GOP gain of 99 seats to 277 seats if Gallup is correct.