It’s election day and I am assuming there won’t be any more polls coming out. So now it is time to make my final election prediction for the House of Representatives. For those who have not been watching, this is not my first prediction.
First a review of how I make my prediction.
I simply take the RCP average of Generic Congressional Vote as my baseline. I adjust their vote totals to assume the GOP and Dems receive 100% of the vote (ie. no third parties win any seats). Then, I have three models to convert vote totals to House seats.
40-year model: Regression of House seats vs. vote total for every election since 1968.
8-year model: Regression of House seats vs. vote total for every election since 2002. Because of the increase in partisanship and computerized gerrymandering, there are now many more safe seats.
1994 & 2006 model: In these two mid-term elections, control of the House switched sides against an unpopular President. The same will likely occur this year.
The models produce the following results:
40-year model: Republicans win 268 House seats, gain of 90 seats.
8-year model: Republicans win 247 House seats, gain of 69 seats.
1994 & 2006 model: Republicans win 253 House seats, gain of 75 seats.
Taking a simple average of the three, I now predict the Republicans will win 256 House seats, a gain of 78 seats.